Helping leadership teams make better strategic decisions in uncertainty.

This service uses scenario planning to support leaders in making robust, confident strategic decisions when the future is uncertain and complexity is high. Rather than attempting to predict what will happen, scenario planning explores multiple plausible futures to test assumptions, reveal risks and opportunities, and improve decision quality before commitments are made.

I design and facilitate futures-informed strategy sessions that connect future possibilities directly to real strategic questions, priorities and trade-offs. The focus is practical and decision-oriented: futures thinking is to create robust strategy that is resilient to what the world might throw at you, and turns potential future challenges into opportunities.

This approach has been used at senior levels in complex organisations, including work with a global FMCG brand where scenario planning informed strategic decisions that contributed to identifying a multi-year growth opportunity valued at over USD $7 billion.

What this work enables

Futures-informed scenario planning helps leadership teams to:

  • Understand how external conditions could plausibly change;

  • Examine how current strategies perform across different futures;

  • Surface and challenge hidden assumptions;

  • Identify vulnerabilities, options and “no-regrets” moves;

  • Make strategic trade-offs explicit and intentional; and

  • Build shared understanding and alignment under uncertainty

Scenarios are treated as strategic tools used to inform today’s decisions, not only to speculate about tomorrow’s possibilities, and they’re critical in times of rapid disruption and transformation.

The LUCID method

This work is grounded in my LUCID method, developed through years of strategy and foresight practice and articulated in my 2019 book Thriving in Complexity.

LUCID provides a disciplined way to think and decide in complex environments:

  • Look — scan the environment for emerging trends and signals

  • Unpack — understand what is actually changing and why

  • Combine — bring forces together to explore how they may interact

  • Immerse — step into plausible futures to test thinking and assumptions

  • Decide — make informed, resilient strategic choices

LUCID ensures that futures thinking remains accessible, structured and focused on decisions — even when dealing with uncertainty.

A common engagement format: Trends → Scenarios → Decisions

While all engagements are tailored, one of the most effective and commonly used approaches is a three-step sequence:

1. Trends — Look & Unpack

We identify and unpack the key trends, forces and signals shaping your operating environment, separating noise from what genuinely matters for your organisation.

2. Scenarios — Combine & Immerse

Relevant trends are combined into a small number of plausible future scenarios. Leaders immerse themselves in these futures to test assumptions, explore risks and opportunities, and understand how current strategy performs under different conditions.

3. Decisions — Decide

Scenarios are used to inform real strategic choices - clarifying priorities, identifying no-regrets moves, surfacing trade-offs and strengthening confidence in the path forward.

This sequence ensures futures insight translates directly into strategy and action.

Formats

Futures-informed scenario planning and strategy facilitation can be delivered through:

  • Scenario-Based Strategy Day
    A focused, facilitated session using scenarios to inform strategic direction and key decisions.

  • Executive or Board Scenario Planning
    Tailored sessions aligned to governance, risk and long-term oversight.

  • Scenario Planning Workshop Series
    A structured series of facilitated workshops delivered over time, allowing leadership teams to revisit trends, refine scenarios and test decisions as conditions evolve. This format supports deeper learning, stronger alignment and more confident decision-making without requiring a futurist-in-residence.

Who this is for

  • Executive and senior leadership teams

  • Boards and governance groups

  • Strategy, transformation and risk leaders

  • HR and workforce leaders aligning strategy to future conditions

  • Organisations navigating uncertainty, disruption or inflection points

Outcomes

Clients typically leave with:

  • Stronger strategic decisions under uncertainty

  • Reduced blind spots and untested assumptions

  • Clearer options and strategic trade-offs

  • Greater alignment across leadership

  • Increased confidence in long-term direction

Let’s explore fit

If you want to move beyond reactive planning and embed future-aware thinking into real strategic decisions, this work provides a structured, practical way forward. Send me a message and I’ll come back to you with next steps.

Take the first step