Finding out you're dead can really change your life

Image: Man Reading A Newspaper

One morning in 1888, Alfred Nobel got out of bed, poured himself a coffee, cracked open the paper, and discovered that he was dead. Not a great start to the morning.

It turns out, journalists had somewhat prematurely consigned Nobel, the inventor of dynamite, to the great beyond, confusing him with his brother. As he sat there digesting both his breakfast and his obituary, he reportedly read that his legacy would be summed up as the "merchant of death". Ouch.

Well, this bizarre encounter with his future legacy shook Nobel profoundly. He decided that he'd rather be remembered as a promoter of peace and the best of human endeavour than a patron saint of explosives. And thus, the Nobel Prizes were born.

Futures, not Forecasts

That's the power of scenarios in action. A scenario isn't a prediction, but rather a thoughtful piece of plausible fiction. They aren't about fortune-telling, or crystal-ball gazing, or flipping tarot cards until you find something you like. They're narratives of the ways tomorrow might unfold, based on an honest reading of today's signals and signposts. And as Nobel discovered firsthand, even a plausible fiction about the future can profoundly shape your choices right here, and right now.

Humans and predictions go together like toddlers and power tools - technically possible, but generally ill-advised.

We love to pretend we know what the future will look like but we are, objectively, terrible at predictions.

Don’t believe me? Fire up YouTube and enjoy the vintage takes of Very Serious Analysts declaring the iPhone “dead on arrival.” Bill Gates in 1996 saying that spam would be solved in 2 years. The president of 20th Century Fox saying in 1946 that TV would be dead in 6 months. Or more recently, this week’s Schrödinger's Tariff policy, where tariffs are both dead and alive, permanent and temporary, and steadfast but negotiable, show that it’s hard to know with certainty what the future is going to look like.

Scenarios exist to stretch our thinking, not settle it. Alfred Nobel was spurred into action not by a spreadsheet, but by a plausible version of his future that felt real enough to change its trajectory. That’s where the magic is. Not because the story was true, but because it could be.

That’s what smart organisations and governments understand. Scenarios aren’t prophecies handed down by foresight wizards in flowing robes. They’re tools - provocative, plausible, and plural – but rarely predictions. They let us rehearse decisions before the stakes are real. They don’t offer certainty, but they do provide clarity.

Fiction as your Strategic Playground

The future doesn’t exist yet.

It’s not a place we’re heading to, it’s something we’re building as we go.

It can’t be predicted because it hasn’t been made.

So when you buy into the confident forecasts of vested interests or the breathless certainty of naive pundits, you’re not just getting the future wrong, you’re surrendering your power to shape it.

The moment you accept someone else’s version of what’s (definitely) coming, you step away from your opportunity to create something better.

Scenarios are more than Buzzfeed quizzes for boardrooms. They’re dress rehearsals for the future. They are deliberate provocations, crafted to stretch your imagination.

Nobel didn’t need a Gannt chart. He needed a story. That’s what inspired him to act.

So here’s your modern-day takeaway: If you want to understand how your vision and plans might thrive - or combust - in a world that’s changing faster than ever, you need to look ahead. You need to explore the emerging signals, challenge the default narratives, and stretch your thinking beyond the status quo. The future rewards those who show up curious, not those who cling to the status quo.

Build stories of plausible futures. The bolder, the better. Learn from the opportunities in the positive ones, mitigate the risks in the negative ones. Because when you imagine it before it happens, you get to shape the future, not suffer from it.

Creating Your Own Nobel Moment

So, maybe don't arrange your own fake death to discover harsh truths about yourself (insurance companies generally frown upon this), but do seize every chance to peer into plausible scenarios - to genuinely question whether your actions point to a legacy you'll be proud of. The future doesn't arrive fully formed; it arises through our choices today - yours, mine, everyone’s.

Alfred Nobel got a bizarrely lucky editorial kick in the pants. So he rewrote the ending.

That’s what scenarios offer. Not predictions, but provocation. They won’t tell you what’s going to happen - but they will stare you down and ask: What are you going to do about it?

So the question isn’t “What will the future look like?” It’s: What could the future look like if you changed what you are doing today?

Whether you're leading a team, shaping strategy, or redefining your business, scenarios let you stress-test ambition against both uncertainty and the status quo, and give you the insights to shape a better future.